With early voting underway in 2024, the razor-thin previous race looms large 

~ By Nate Davis, Saul Galvan, Ryan Kelly, Jennifer Mercado Morales

A global pandemic, over 60 lawsuits, and President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede made for a truly one-of-a-kind presidential election in 2020. 

In 2020, Joe Biden won important states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania, giving him enough electoral votes to win. The margin of victory in some of those key states was razor-thin. Post-election, The Washington Post reported that flipping fewer than 80,000 votes in just four states would have changed the outcome of the race. 

In Pennsylvania, a winner was not declared until the Saturday after the election. The delay was caused by a Pennsylvania law which prohibits opening mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Because of COVID-19, Pennsylvania received an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots, which slowed the vote counting in the state. 

In the interim, then-President Trump, who was leading on election night, made several requests, public and private, to “stop the count.” This was one of the first episodes in the ongoing saga of the right-wing conspiracy theory that the 2020 election was rigged. 

In January 2021, Trump personally pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” Trump enough votes to win the state, a phone call captured on tape. 

President Trump’s false accusations of voter fraud in swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia had far-reaching influence. These claims were one of the primary factors that led to the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Lies about voter fraud have become pervasive in the modern political climate. Earl Gosnell, a 77-year-old Eugene local, was very passionate about the alleged fraud that took place in the 2020 election. “It has been established that the election was stolen,” said Gosnell. 

More than 60 lawsuits were filed by Trump and his associates. No evidence of widespread voter fraud has been found. 

This May, Pennsylvania’s Democratic-led House of Representatives passed a bill to amend the 7 a.m. law. The Republican-controlled state senate refused to put it to a vote, leaving the law unchanged. Another delay in counting this year could lead to more uncertainty, potentially giving Trump another opportunity to cast doubt on the results should Harris prove victorious. 

While Republicans were keeping the rules the same in Pennsylvania, the Republican-controlled Georgia state election board voted to require that all ballots be hand-counted by county officials on Election Day in Georgia. Some election experts oppose the hand-counting of ballots, which they say is less accurate and more time-consuming than mechanical alternatives. 

Georgia’s election board has allied itself with President Trump. The former president has described three officials as “pit bulls” fighting for “victory.” As in Pennsylvania, a delay in the count could be advantageous for Trump, who may hope to use a similar playbook to 2020 by trying to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the ruling, particularly with a sympathetic election board. 

Polls in swing states fall well within the margin of error almost across the board. It’s shaping up to be another close race, that will be decided by the Electoral College.