The 2024 Election will come down to a few crucial states. These states are important because of America’s Electoral College system.

~ By Jenna Clark, Owen Johnson, Natalie Robinson, Colby Wissmiller

In the United States, winning the presidency doesn’t require the national popular vote.

In November 2016, Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton received 2.9 million more votes than her Republican counterpart. Yet, she still lost the election. 

Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, won the Electoral College and beat Clinton. 

To win the White House, a candidate must receive at least 270 electoral votes.

Most states use the winner-take-all method. All of a state’s electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the most votes in that state. A candidate can win key states by narrow margins, winning the election despite having fewer popular votes. 

In the 2000 election, George Bush won Florida’s popular vote over Al Gore by just 537 votes and won all 25 of Florida’s electoral votes, which decided the election for the Republican Party.

“Most states consistently vote red or blue — between 2000 and 2016, 38 states voted for the same political party — but swing states are less predictable,” NPR reporter Joe Hernandez wrote. Identifying the issues important to undecided voters in swing states becomes crucial to campaign strategy. 

Swing states are evenly divided, making them a focal point of each election. In 2016, according to reports, former President Trump spent 50% more time campaigning in swing states than Clinton. He went on to win all six swing states and the election. 

The Electoral College process narrows the focus of presidential campaigns. Candidates spend the bulk of their time in states that are competitive.

“This year’s presidential battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — represent 18% of the country’s population but have dominated the attention of the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates and their running mates,” wrote Christine Fernando for AP News.

The results of the elections in these states will almost certainly determine the victor of the presidential race. 

Campaign visits are essential to success in the Electoral College. A 2016 study of the election found that “Trump rallies increased his support over Clinton by about 4.5 percentage points on average.” These rallies are strategically scheduled nationwide in states where candidates think they can flip the vote. 

Candidates save time and money by focusing their campaigns in swing states rather than waste resources in states where the results are more predictable. Swing state voters get more attention, and candidates focus their policies on voters within these key areas while neglecting those in safer states. 

During an October rally in Flint, Michigan, Harris reassured local automakers that General Motors would receive a $500 million federal grant for the production of electric vehicles. In her speech, Harris vowed to “spend federal tax dollars on boosting the steel and automotive industry,”the Detroit News reported. 

Michigan is a swing state. 

Maggie Darst, a Democrat living in Eugene, Oregon, said she “doesn’t necessarily feel represented” in her home state of Texas, a historically red state. Voters who belong to their state’s minority party often feel like their voices have little impact on the outcome of elections. 

This feeling is amplified by the structure of the Electoral College, which places the greatest weight on a handful of swing states like Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania – states to keep an eye on when watching the results unfold on Election Day.